Three and Out: Uninformed Speculation about Stafford's Future

If we are honest with ourselves, we can all remember some not-so-distant past time when we were dog-cussing Matthew Stafford. Perhaps you nodded while Coach Know-it-All a few rows down in your section at Sanford screamed for his tallowed head (Colorado, anyone?). My God, you silently shook your head, Joe Cox cannot be this bad. Yet all the while, we Georgia fans embraced Staff's learning curve with a sort of eager endurance, trusting that things would get better. And then when things did click, we all reckoned, they would not get any better than the Highland Park gunslinger.

He improved rather drastically last year, and his statistics simply do not perform justice to how dynamic and explosive his right appendage can make an offense. Those adjectives have rarely been associated w/ Mark Richt offenses since his arrival in Athens. The combination of a relentless ground game with the Texan's lightning quick airstrikes led to the release of long-pent-up giddiness in Georgia fans last year. He is finally living up to the hype, and we have tremendous expectations for the coming two years.

But please don't hate him when he turns pro next year. Of course, this leap is premised on Georgia having a very good year this season - say ten wins - and Stafford's further progress. Seven has it all- size, height, experience, pocket presence, moxy, leadership, you name it. And of course, you also may have seen his generational-type fastball which could shred the Georgia Dome's fabric roof. Yes, he has every trait the pros want except for one thing: accuracy. His personal goal for completion percentage next season is 62%. Given his development from rookie to soph, that mark is more than realistic - and do not be surprised if he surpasses it.

I love the NFL, but only a fool would admit that there are not many sub par QBs in the league. Mel Kiper may know a thing or two after all. Elway, Jr. will be in high demand next year. But Pettifogger, you say, aren't all honky children of privilege (white quarterbacks) adamant about basking in their four years of college stardom to the fullest? Look at Peyton, Couch, Leinart, Eli, Rivers, Quinn, Brohm, etc., etc., etc. You can never get that college experience back. Yes, you are right. Except that loyally sticking around for that senior year has proven costly -very costly - for a few QBs recently. You counter: but Leinart and Brohm had limited physical tools and had already reached their ceiling by their junior campaigns, and Staff will be different on both counts. Again, you are right.

But I have a trump card:
Owners are expected to opt out of the collective bargaining extension in November, which starts the clock ticking on future labor problems. Owners believe the current system doesn't work. Two years ago, at the threat of losing the salary cap, owners endorsed a CBA extension that favored the players, but it's eating into the owners' profit margins.

Not good. That means 2009 will be the last year under this labor deal. With no deal, there will be no salary cap in 2010. We know that ain't happening anytime soon. The NFL's Shield has grown strong behind the egalitarian principles that MLB baseball lacked all these years. What does this mean?

Welcome to Economics class kids! The owners are giving away less money, and the current players aren't giving up a dime of what they already have. Where does the money come from then, class? That's right, Johnny, those two parties will eagerly screw anyone without a seat at the table. We already know how they collude against league veterans. Guess who else is largely unrepresented? College players. Everyone seems to love this idea of limiting future rookie pay (man it pains me to link to Micheal David Smith and his PFT trash. Killing dogs is really bad, we get it already.). Shafting future stars may or may not be a good thing depending on your philosophical bent, but I feel very strongly that a move to NBA-style rookie compensation will happen in the next NFL labor deal.

And so our boy Matty is caught up in circumstances beyond his control. He needs to go pro. Consider: this year, the 1st pick in the NFL draft will make safely north of $36 million in guarantees alone. By contrast, top young baller in the NBA nets a deal in the neighborhood of five years and $25 mill total in the '08 draft. Can you really hold it against Staff for jumping in during the final year before the NFL's slotted rookie pay scale? I hope no one counsels him that the money will always be there. It won't.

Moral of the story: Enjoy the 24-7 show this fall, and try not to be bitter in the winter when they are both gone.